Volcano Update

Official Update on Mount Agung Volcano for Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources 

The Government of Indonesia is operating a multiplatform application to provide instantly updated and interactive information and recommendations on earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis in Indonesia. The website MAGMA  - Multiplatform Applications for Geohazard Mitigation and Assessment in Indonesia – has been operated by the Center for Volcanoes and the Mitigation of Geological Disasters (PVMBG) since 2015 using open source technology.

A technically advanced site, PVMG instantly accepts data from a number of sources and translates that data into recommendations that are of value to the general public in the effort to mitigate natural disasters,

The latest information on Mount Agung posted on Friday, September 29, 2017, by Kasbani, Head of CVGHM (Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation), from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources:

Seismic:

1. Recorded volcanic earthquakes still show high numbers. These earthquakes indicate brittle failure inside the volcano caused by magma movement.
2. Calculated magnitudes of earthquakes have continued to increase. The magnitude of the largest volcanic earthquake during the crisis period is M4.3 on September 27, 2017, at 13:12 Central Indonesian Time (UTC+8) and more earthquakes are being felt recently by people around Agung and Batur areas, and some of the biggest earthquakes are even felt in Denpasar and Kuta areas.
3. Volcanic earthquakes are estimated to be located within 20 km of the volcano's summit. 

Satellite Remote Sensing:

1. Satellites have detected new steam emissions and thermal areas within the summit crater; these areas have expanded during the past week and now include a new area of emissions in the center of the crater.

Visual Observations:

1. White steam clouds are occasionally observed rising 50-200 m above the summit; and currently, the emissions activity are observed to be more frequent.
2. After an M4.2 earthquake on September 26, 2017, at 16:27 Central Indonesian Time (UTC+8), a larger white steam cloud was emitted to a height of around 500 m above the summit.

Deformation:

1. Analysis of tiltmeter data suggests some inflation (swelling) of Mount Agung.

Analysis:

1. Based on the analysis of current monitoring data, at this moment, the probability of an eruption is higher than the probability of no eruption; however, the probability may change at any time depending on current monitoring data.
2. If an eruption does occur, it is most likely to be small at first; however, a large eruption may follow. The size of future eruptions cannot be determined with certainty.
3. The exact date and time of future eruptions cannot be predicted, however; CVGHM (Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation) will issue warnings when conditions change and eruptions are more certain.
4. It is still safe to travel to Bali; however, visitors should not enter the restricted areas near the volcano (currently at distances of 12 km to the southeast to southwest and north to northeast and 9 km elsewhere. CVGHM has worked with the Indonesian National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB) to develop warnings for eruptive activity.

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